In a dramatic turn of events, the race for California's governorship has witnessed considerable reshuffling, as revealed by the latest findings of the Emerson College Polling and Inside California Politics. The poll conducted from March 7-9, 2026, indicates a surge in support for Democratic Congressman Eric Swalwell, who now leads the pack of gubernatorial candidates.
Swalwell's Rising Star
Swalwell, who represents the eastern Bay Area, garnered 17% of the support from 1,000 registered voters—a notable increase from just 14% in mid-February. This rise marks a pivotal moment for Swalwell, elevating him above his competitors and securing him the frontrunner position for the Democratic nomination. In contrast, Republican Steve Hilton—a political commentator—has seen his numbers decline to 13%, down from 17% in the previous month.
Notably, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco also a Republican, is in close contention with 11.4% of the votes, while billionaire Democratic activist Tom Steyer follows closely at 11%. The poll illustrates a fragmented primary landscape, with 24.5% of voters still undecided, leaving the race wide open as Californians gear up for the June 2 primary.
A Snapshot of Key Candidates
As campaigning heats up, some prominent figures are struggling to maintain their momentum. Katie Porter, a former congresswoman once considered a key contender, has slipped to 8.4% from nearly 10% since February. Other notable Democratic contenders, including former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, are trailing significantly with around 3% each.
The candidates' fates are tightly intertwined with the current political landscape, particularly how they resonate with the independent and undecided voters who have the power to sway the outcome.
Voter Sentiment and Key Issues
According to the Emerson poll, Swalwell has seen a significant increase in support amongst Democratic voters, rising from 23% to 27%. Meanwhile, Steyer's support also grew from 12% to 16%. The polling data highlights an intriguing division among independents, where 39% remain undecided, and support is divided evenly between Swalwell and Hilton at 12% each.
Current Governor Gavin Newsom holds a job approval rating of 45%, reflecting a slight improvement from February when it was at 44%. His disapproval rating stands at 40%. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, faces a greater challenge, with a job approval rating of only 28% among Californians.
When asked about the most pressing issues facing the state, voters identified the economy as the foremost concern (37%), followed by housing affordability (22%) and threats to democracy (11%). The issue of homelessness, a critical challenge for many urban areas in California, is perceived to be worsening by 53% of the voters.
Looking Forward: The Road to June 2
With the primary fast approaching, candidates will face increased pressure to solidify their bases and win over undecided voters. The dynamics in this race illustrate a shifting political landscape in California, where established figures may need to adapt or risk being left behind in the competitive field. The top two finishers in the primary—regardless of party affiliation—will advance to the November general election, a crucial moment that could shape the future direction of governance in the state.
As the race unfolds, one thing remains clear: California's political landscape is as unpredictable as ever, with newer candidates stepping into the spotlight and experienced politicians needing to fight hard to maintain relevance. The upcoming weeks will be critical for all contenders as they work to reshape their campaigns amid changing poll results and voter attitudes.
For further information on polling and candidate events leading up to the primary, stay tuned for continuous updates.
